Obama mia! He’ll fail regardless of his successes
Left: Shortly before casting his vote for Obama, John Kageorge celebrated Obamamania with his daughter (pictured here) in Washington, DC
Has hope run amok? On election night TV viewers saw villagers in Obama’s Kenyan ancestral home convinced their road would get paved compliments of the new US president.
The day after the election, a cabbie in Houston told me that his worries were over because the new president would waive defaulted mortgages.
These expectations are mild compared to others. What’s on President Obama’s ‘To Do’ list?
- economic stimulus and job creation
- energy independence
- industry bailouts
- Social Security and Medicare
- tax reform
- universal healthcare
And that’s just at home. He’s also expected to end the Iraq War, broker peace in the Middle East, and stabilize Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.
If god became president, the expectations wouldn’t be so high.
Public Relations practitioners know the dangers of not reining in public expectations.
As stated in the bible for PR consultants, The Trusted Advisor, “We must ensure that our clients gain a clear understanding of what they can and cannot reasonably expect from us.” So too should President Obama.
PR practitioners must be open about the challenges and difficulties. Obama can continue leading ‘Yes We Can’ choir practice. However, he and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs need to qualify the song with “It will be hard and you will need to sacrifice.”
“Reconciling expectations … could be one of the new president’s toughest tests,” wrote Reuters’ John Whitesides on January 19. He reports that the sentiment is shared by Daniel Serwer of the US Institute of Peace who states, “There is ample opportunity for disappointment here if expections are too high or, more importantly, if you expect results too quick.”
Obama has a globe of goodwill. But where it matters most, the people living in the 50 states, it will only last so long. Americans are fickle. George Bush went from idiot to savant in domestic polls because of his 9-11 speech; he exceeded expectations and it shockingly won another term in office.
As Obama begins his first full week of work, he must temper public expectations. By doing so, his upcoming successes will be fairly judged instead of being perceived as falling short.
Do you think people are expecting too much?
John KageorgeCPRS Member
Vancouver, BC
Years in the PR industry: 18
January 28th, 2009 at 7:04 am
Two factors will contimue to affect Obama’s honeymoon period with the American people and the World Community.
1) His rise to power is almost a Hollywood cliche. School of hard knocks, works hard to succeed at university, serves the community but doesn’t get the chance to rise until a chance encounter (with Bob Dole) leads to that speech at the Democratic convention. It put him on the map and marks him out as the Next Big Thing. It’s the movie of the week. In short, the Myth of the American Dream.
Of course, this alone would not give him the key to the White House.
In the UK any Young Turk has to pay his/her dues and work in several junior positions before given any type of senior post let alone Prime Minister.
What helped put Obama in the Oval Office was
2) The American public’s complete dissatisfaction with the previous administration. They took to Obama as he was the polar opposite of Bush and they projected their needs, dreams and hopes onto him. He tapped into this and used it, not realsing thast he was hitching a ride with a tornado.
His Inauguration speech told people that he was going to be business all the way. It was important that he set the agenda and tempered people’s expectations. But having built a campaign on a foundation of myth and dreams, it will be a rude awakening when people see that the mess is still there and Obama lives in the White House and not the Fortress of Solitude.
This will be the time when Obama will have to be the leader that the US needs. Everyone will be watching his performance at the plate.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Well thought and well written, John, and you’re absolutely correct in making the point about the need to temper the public’s expectations.
But I believe Obama is beginning to understand that now, and that John Whiteside’s views on Jan. 19 may not be the same today, following the Jan. 20 inaugural speech. “Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real,” Obama stated. “They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily of in a short span of time.”
Yes, we Americans are fickle, but most of us understand that the disastrous Bush Administration left a mess of such colossal proportions that will take years of intense scrubbing to clean up.
Tom Friedman of the NY Times pointed out, correctly I think, that real progress has its best chance during times of deep despair and crisis, which we are enduring now. Here is a bit of Friedman’s column…
“Opportunities for bold initiatives and truly new beginnings are rare in our system — in part because of the sheer inertia and stalemate designed into our Constitution, with its deliberate separation of powers, and in part because of the way lobbying money, a 24-hour news cycle and a permanent presidential campaign all conspire to paralyze big changes.
“’The system is built for stalemate,’ said Michael J. Sandel, the Harvard University political theorist. ‘In ordinary times, the energy and dynamism of American life reside in the economy and society, and people view government with suspicion or indifference. But in times of national crisis, Americans look to government to solve fundamental problems that affect them directly. These are the times when presidents can do big things. These moments are rare. But they offer the occasion for the kind of leadership that can recast the political landscape, and redefine the terms of political argument for a generation.’
“In the 1930s, the Great Depression enabled Franklin Roosevelt to launch the New Deal and redefine the role of the federal government, he added, while in the 1960s, the assassination of John F. Kennedy and ‘the moral ferment of the civil rights movement’ enabled Lyndon Johnson to enact his Great Society agenda, including Medicare, the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act.
“’These presidencies did more than enact new laws and programs,’ concluded Sandel. ‘They rewrote the social contract, and redefined what it means to be a citizen. Obama’s moment, and his presidency, could be that consequential.’
“George W. Bush completely squandered his post-9/11 moment to summon the country to a dramatic new rebuilding at home. This has left us in some very deep holes. These holes — and the broad awareness that we are at the bottom of them — is what makes this a radical moment, calling for radical departures from business as usual, led by Washington.”
February 1st, 2009 at 1:33 pm
It’s a perversity of modern politics that you have to raise expectations too high just to get elected. Obama’s situation is only a little worse because:
a) he’s been really good at raising expectations; and
b) the last guy let us all down so badly that we’re desperate to believe in a better tomorrow.
Per some of the comments above, I agree that Obama is aware of the trap he’s set. The inauguration speech featured lots of good the-road-ahead-will-be-difficult messaging. He even started to set a time frame for success that would exceed a single presidential term. The man is no fool.
As evidence, he has also built a big tent, trying to get and keep as many people onside as possible in the short term. But that will get harder - and soon. Obama is going to have to make decisions that some people find painful (such as ordering the EPA to review its decision to block California from pushing the nation’s automakers toward more fuel-efficient vehicles; Detroit Democrats are already howling).
On the question of whether he’s getting the public relations part right, I’m inclined to say, yes, given the restrictions built into the system (see my opening sentence), he’s been steering those waters very effectively.
The greater question is whether he will be able to manage the necessary governmental finesse - and frankly the policy brilliance that will be essential if he is to nudge the world away from an environmental and economic direction that could be catastrophic.
Can’t wait to find out …
February 1st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Obama’s speech does recall that of John F. Kennedy on accepting the Democratic nomination (1960):
“The new frontier of which I speak is not a set of promises—it is a set of challenges. It sums up not what I intend to offer the American people, but what I intend to ask of them. It appeals to their pride, not their pocketbook—it holds out the promise of more sacrifice instead of more security.”
Guess we should, then, heed Bernard Baruch, who wrote: “Vote for the man who promises least; he’ll be the least disappointing.”
February 2nd, 2009 at 12:26 am
It’s indicative of how bad it had become under George Bush. If I was advising a company with a new CEO I would argue that there is a sensible strategic option to get all the bad news out at the first opportunity. After all, you can blame the last guy and rebase expectations. Does this work in politics where everyone knows the issues and you’ve been campaigning on how you will fix things for two years, I just don’t know. It’s fascinating watching it all from London, and a nice change to have a US administration that wants to be positively engaged with the rest of the world. The proof will be in actions not words though. Protectionism stalks us all in these difficult times, taking a leadership position on this will be the first test of Obama.
February 2nd, 2009 at 7:19 am
John - as always a well drafted and well thought out piece. I agree with your ascertain that “If god became president, the expectations wouldn’t be so high.” I think what people may be missing here is that among the high hopes for a new direction has to be a management of expectations as you state.
Biggest challenge in my view in managing a successful P/R strategy and campaign is ensuring that you clients are building up their expectations of ROI so huge that not even the best practitioner could deliver. So too must the new President and his team manage the enormous expectations being laid upon him as “one man” who just happens to hold the most powerful office in the world.
I think the more we discuss the challenges ahead for him, his administration and of course all of us we will get a better and more realistic sense of what is doable and what is pure fantasy. Looking forward to more of your insights.